Tuesday, April 3, 2012

Aung San Suu Kyi's victory in election

Congratulation to her victory in the latest election in Burma! I think it is a good new beginning of Burma's democratic struggle. However, to be honest with you, I'm not very confident with this movement for the long haul. Certainly, I'm a pure remote spectator without an ounce of insider information. But, as a person who is a semi-believer of conspiracy, I think there are likely to be a lot of hidden stories that behind the seem-to-be great news for freedom lover everywhere.

The reason why I'm kinda speculative of the whole thing began with Aung San Suu Kyi's release from 10+ years of house arrest few months ago. Yes, the military government had changed hand right before that. But, that change is purely within military, it could be a case of more open-minded leader replaced an old guard. However, the bottom line is that the regime hasn't changed. Even if the 'replacement' is more open-minded, the power is still firmly gripped by the military regime. They have no reason to return power to the people. An unconditional release of Aung San is thus very suspicious to me. The perception is that the military government would like to extend an olive branch to the West by releasing her and exchange for the lift of embargo. That could be true, but why now? They could do that in 2004 right after the Tsunami or the earthquake in 2008 (if I remembered correctly) that did lots of damages to the country, and they would need money to rebuild. Also, if they do really need money now, I'm sure PRC Government wouldn't mind to support them in exchange for building pipe or road through their country to Indian Ocean. So, what is the reason of things happening now?

I think it is because they deem Aung San as a diminishing threat to their power now than before. I think the military government is not dumb. They know that Aung San is their country's trophy. She is the only person that the outside world knows of their country. So, she has a tremendous value as a bargaining chip with the West for lifting the embargo. The major concern that the military government has is to ensure their power will stay.

The fact is that Aung San is a very smart and popular woman in Burma but she is already 65 years old. All these years in her captive, she was unable to cultivate a younger leader in the opposition that is visible and powerful enough to be her successor through her influence. I think the government must believe that she wouldn’t be able to do that then, she mostly likely wouldn’t be able to do that now. Yes, they could continuous to detain her until she dies for sure that won’t happen. But, that’s a waste to ‘cash in’ when she still has value. Thus, they release her and even let her to be elected into their camp. Since, the majority is still firmly controlled in the military’s palm. Her presence is more for diplomatic reason. Going back to the conspiracy part, it is possible that Aung San has health issue that she wouldn’t be a threat to the regime for much longer. Namely, her value outrights her threat, it thus makes sense to ‘cash-in’ now then later. So, the government deems that she won’t be like Nelson Mandala that became the president in his 70s and still living in his 90s. That has no proof for such claim, but it is possible.

Of course, I wish that the conspiracy is not true and she would live healthily in years to come. However, who know? There is nothing for sure about world event except the unpredictability in its nature.

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