Wednesday, October 31, 2012

Mouse Jedi


The latest news of Disney acquiring George Lucas’ properties for about US$4B is a definitely a “Red Bull” moment for the Mouse. This deal comes with Lucasfilm, Industrial Light and Magic aka “ILM – I Love Money”, Skywalker Sound, the Star Wars Franchise, Indiana Jones Franchise, etc. All of these for that amount of money in these days are just a bargain that any other studios would love to top Disney if they were offered the chance to without question.

You can say that it is a deal that both sides really want. George Lucas is in his seventies, should retire at least from running businesses (though it is highly profitable) that he own. So, selling the baggage seems reasonable. Reportedly he will still be involved at the high level of the new Star Wars movie is a blessing of transition. This old man has done more than enough for the franchise and it is great to let other younger creative genius to ‘mess’ around the Star Wars Universe from now on. It is definitely critical to keep this treasure alive and develop for generations to come, just see how different people have taken James Bond to all these years!

On the other hand, Disney is definitely doing quite well since it is under Bob Iger back in 2005 when the studio was in a hole in terms of creativity. Back then, their animations were disappointing, movie side was just so-so comparing with its peers. The US$7B acquisition of Pixar saved the company, and the 2008 acquisition of Marvel was definitely a genius move. The Pixar movies and the Avengers are just power shots that rejuvenated their film properties as well as other auxillary businesses. Now, with Lucasfilm, what a surprisingly wise business move that just makes so much sense to their future. The acquisition is so compatible to Disney’s current business, it is just a no-brainer. Cuz, Disney gets not just the Star Wars universe but also the technical sides of the acquisitions which are just top notch in the world.

Yes, film business does gamble, however, with some valid proven cash cows, it helps the studio to gamble in taking creative risks. At least on paper, that’s true! I think Disney is now kinda unbeatable in terms of the reservoir of fantasy that it owns and can play with. They are gonna make the money back in no time, given the world audiences have the need to escape from the crude reality in today’s world. $$$ all for Disney!

Thursday, October 25, 2012

How fuck-up is the current Chinese economy



I’ve not blogged for a while as I’ve been very busy with many things. However, I’m still very in touch with what’s going on with the help of many blogs, news articles, etc that I read daily. I found the following article to be so insightful that I can’t help but sharing that below.

To all readers who can’t read Chinese, I’m sorry that I can’t help. But I think it is a great article to read if you are interest in the current stage of the Chinese economy. To many news readers in the West, given the economic problems in EU and in the U.S., they have been falsely led to believe that Chinese economy is so afloat and booming. I guess the press in the West are simply too busy or caught up with their own countries’ economic condition that they are simply lazy to verify the ‘mirage’ of Chinese economy, so they just report to their readers as hearsay. That’s very irresponsible! Actually, in fact, the current stage of Chinese economy is more than ‘slow-down’ as reported by the lazy press. It is fucked up big time! It is not just gonna crashed which is gonna be brutal. The problem will also spread, by then, the rest of the world is gonna feel the shock.

I can’t verify how accurate the data of following article piece by piece, but I do hear similar stories from other sources, just not as thoroughly as presented. I don’t know if any reader will do any follow up or would use Google translate or else to get the message of the article to the English speaking world. However, if Chinese economy gonna crash tomorrow, the base of this article would be a valuable piece of information for many books or studies for the aftershock of the event. I guess the dire situation of Chinese economy is well-known somewhere in the West, perhaps in some academic circles or among economy policy makers. They just keep their mouth shut and try to build their position to reap benefit from it. Anyway, whether my thought on the whole thing is true or not, I will let the reader to judge.

顏昌海:大限將至,清算来臨

顏昌海的博客2012-10-24

目前中國百姓感觸最深的一件事恐怕就是“錢越來越不值錢”了。現在的國人或許不會承認國內經濟形勢不好,但是一提到“現在的錢越來越不值錢”,大家基本還都是認同的。

人們可以做一個估價:一個社會一年總量生產的貨幣如果是10萬億人民幣,那麼就要有和10萬億相等的資金來流通,這個資金包括現鈔啊、包括支票、包括轉賬…等等,就可以購買這些物品來周轉。這貨幣,可以有物資來做承載物。在更早的一段時期,在1972年以前,全世界是用黃金做基本價位,發行貨幣量是用黃金來做支撐、兌換的。中國人走的不是這條路,中國人走的是用貨物。比如現在中國的貨物每年增長8%好了,到了明年就算是增加到11萬億,可是發行鈔票的時候則發行到了15萬億到16萬億,那麼鈔票跟貨幣之間就不等價了,所代表貨品的那些鈔票就貶值了。也就是說,現在當局無節制的超額發行貨幣才造成了目前的混亂。

那麼當局超額發行貨幣的具體額度是多少?有兩個數字。一個是講發行到了95萬億,還一個數字講到發行到120萬億。而中國現在自己所公布的GDP的產量就是40萬,超過將近3倍了。120萬億這個數字官方不承認,官方承認的是發了一倍,90多萬。即便如此,也就是老百姓原來手上有鈔票等過了2年以後,發現不值錢了。貶值的意義,在於當局通過發行鈔票的手段,來掠奪你老百姓的資產:本來應該可以買一棟房子的,可是到最後只能買半棟。那半棟的錢給政府拿走了,通過發行鈔票的辦法把它拿走了。

當然,像美國也就是依靠印鈔票解決財政赤字問題。從1990年到2010年,這20年間,美國廣義貨幣供應量M2增長了2.6倍。而根據中央財經大學經濟學院副教授高偉的統計,中國在同期內的增長速度是44倍。然而,美國這麼做,它這個錢是發行全世界,流通全世界,讓全世界來承擔,所以發行越多,自己的負擔越少,轉嫁到全世界了。中國則不是世界通用的,僅僅是本國通用,所以要自己承擔。此外,美國人之所以可以這樣做,因為美國它有它的貿易量,它有實務的產品,有很好的銀行資產,美國自己在外國還有很多存款,所以它用這個來抵銷它的發行量。中國卻沒有,有人說中國3萬億美金在外國;可是別忘了3萬億裡面有幾乎一半以上是外國人的直接投資。這個錢人家隨時可以拿走的。還有一部分錢,是中國企業中間賺的錢。所以中國只有三分之一不到是屬於自己的錢。

況且中國政府還背那麼多債,這個債根本這幾萬億根本抵不上的,全部拿回家都抵不上。所以現在經濟產出不夠的時候,又要養這麼多官員,要維穩費、國防費,什麼費用都要的時候,就只好印鈔票了。越印鈔票,鈔票就越不值錢。

現在,中國金融機構的錢都被外資賺走了,金融機構實際上是一個空殼,再加上很多不良債務,這也就是中國銀行股被賣空的主要原因。一場轟轟烈烈的金融風暴必然要爆發,有些銀行的破產是必然的。

債務的解決之道,有三種方式:一種是大肆印鈔衝抵債務,這樣債務在海量的鈔票發行中人間蒸發;第二種是債務違約,到期因為沒錢支付這些債務,只好采取違約的方式展期,一天一天往後拖,但是,終歸會有最後一天;第三種方式是兌美元實行貶值,損壞其他國家利益。顯然,利益集團不會選擇第三種,因為那時美國正在逼迫人民幣升值,人民幣還是天天由央行確定中間價,那自然就是天天上漲。第二種方式會讓中央政府有失體面,也不好交代,所以,選擇第一種方式最為妥當,然而要將債務轉移出去,沒有一點強有力的手段來推動,是完全不可能,也無法將本來屬於中央政府承擔的債務轉移出去。

2008年以前中國政府具體負債的體現是赤字。財政赤字突破一萬億元人民幣也是這一年發生的,舉國震驚,反對政府三公消費,要求政府簡政的浪潮一浪高過一浪。如何消除財政赤字成為政府考慮的頭等大事。如何處理,是需要技巧的。如果小批量印鈔,可以衝抵財政赤字,但是於事無補,因為當時奧運和其他基本建設已經耗盡民財,如果物價上漲,誰都知道是怎麼回事?這時恰逢美國次貸危機爆發,給政府找到借口,他們就此制定一個大的計劃,把國家債務向地方政府和城市居民實行轉移。很簡單,一是用投資來拉動經濟增長,地方政府積極性一下就會調動起來;二是把房價漲起來,老百姓一定會被調動起來,全民積極買房,那麼房貸就會無限膨脹,也只有房貸才能有效助長私人借貸。這樣,國家債務就由地方政府和私人全部承擔了,而政府、銀行和大財團都將大謀其利。

這一招聰明。第一借助美國次貸危機之際,可以宣布為政府的“救市”高招,因為不僅僅只是中國政府在救市,日本、巴西、印度等國也在救市,從全球大環境來講,實在是千載難逢的機會;第二珠三角長三角地區破產的中小企業繁多,失業的外來工返鄉成為一種大潮,如果地方放政府不斷興建項目,那麼還能給國際社會一個交代,因為可以解決一部分就業;第三本來過剩的產能導致的是經濟衰退,這一下不僅能消化完畢,反而拉動原材料價格和資產價格的暴漲;第四是最主要的是,中央政府不僅巧妙地轉移出去了所有債務,反而提高了財政收入,銀行資產三年暴漲五倍。這如此高明一箭四雕的手法,世人皆嘆。

於是,地王誕生了。北京中服地塊經過96輪叫拍,溢價率超過486%,相當於標准地價的五倍。這種飆漲的地價給了市場一個鮮明的印像,那就是房價必然暴漲。於是乎,全國各大城市地價猛漲,一個又一個地王此起彼伏,房價隨之猛漲。房價像脫韁的野馬一跑起來,根本擋不住。而房價上漲帶來的金融風險足可以摧毀整個金融體系,最後終將得不償失。道理很簡單,100萬的房產,短時期內突然漲到300萬,實際上還是這個房子,並沒有重新創造一分錢新的價值,卻突然賣出去卻變成三倍的價格,這種現像等於在銀行創造了200萬的貨幣,而這200萬其實就是泡沫。而這種資產一多,貨幣必然貶值,通貨膨脹就會爆發,金融系統的崩潰也就不遠。

中央政府將所有的債務全部實現了轉移,看上去,中央政府不僅沒有多少債務,而且財政收入還有盈余,實際上債務只是轉移出去,卻並沒有消除,相反各級地方政府在這種經濟大躍進中增加的債務逐步形成了天文數據。而地方政府卻不懂這些債務是怎麼來的,因為當時去貸款時很多項目是國家批下來的,並沒有抵押品,也沒有說怎麼還,只是要把錢花出去,還款日期根本就不是從經營利潤中推演的准確日期,而是隨口說一年或者三年,現在的問題是,即使是三年也就是2013年,也有很多債務集中到期,所有市長和縣長都會兩手一攤:沒錢還。

這種結局如果不處理,銀行的壞賬爛賬就會堆積如山,如果處理,那就不用說,很多銀行只有關門大吉。當時有很多的傳說。內地一個二線城市一個地產商因為涉嫌行賄受賄和其他經濟犯罪,判其入獄6年,2009年出獄後,正遇4萬億救市,他入獄前圈了兩塊地,他當時在銀行貸款只有1000萬,七八年後,這兩塊地在2009年地王聲中價值暴增,後來評估為1.5億,當即在銀行又貸出1個億,繼續開發房地產,一舉成為當地數一數二的大開發商。這個故事並沒人去核實,其實也根本不用核實,與其命運相似的恆大、富力、合生創展等等在盲目擴張面臨破產的時候,突然鹹魚翻生,一舉成為中國的首富,是誰救了他們?當然,4萬億加20萬億救了他們。從經濟學上來講,是誰救了他們?當然是全體百姓,這等於中國13億人平均每人將近拿出2萬元的鑄幣稅送給政府和開發商,他們豈不發財?這筆錢是一筆永遠無法還清的債務算。

1929年,當美聯儲的信貸與GDP之間的比例超過160%時,全球第一次經濟危機開始爆發,華爾街許多投資人排隊在跳樓,黑色星期一成為經濟史上永遠的記憶。中國20129月末信貸投放余額66萬億(不包括金融衍生品),按國際通用的數據模型,2011年中國名義GDP47萬億,實際只有40萬億,信貸與GDP之比是165%。這個比例是1929年美國爆發經濟危機時的比例還高出5%。最為奇詭的是,美國這種債務比例是11年的經濟周期內衍生出來的,而中國這種債務是短短三年內衍生出來的。這裡面的風險究竟有多大,誰也不知道。一旦爆發出來,必然是翻江倒海般掀起巨浪滔滔。

歷史上很多國家都發生過債務海嘯,但是,沒有一個國家會像中國這樣把全民都拖下水,因為別的國家在發生危機前都紛紛把落水者救上岸,而中國是中央權貴把債務轉嫁到地方政府和私人,自己先逃,並將自己的資產轉移到境外;然後,任由銀行和開發商、地方官員把百姓拖下水。

早在1970年代末,石油危機爆發時,包括巴西等拉美很多國家采取很多手段紛紛削減普通百姓的債務,由政府來為危機買單。在波羅的海國家發生債務危機時, 拉托維亞被迫請求國際貨幣基金組織救助也不增加百姓負擔。在2008年美國次貸危機爆發時,美國政府寧可雷曼兄弟破產保護,也不讓危機的後果讓買房人承 擔。在本次歐債危機中,希腊一旦發現民眾生活質量下降時,政府全力幫助受困家庭改善生活。在中國完全不同,一切後果讓全民承擔。在無錫,一個新區管委會公 務員發不出薪水,就逼迫所有公務員去搞大拆遷,強搶百姓財富;在東北,地方財政出現危機,地方官員就采取收費的辦法,巧立名目向街上店鋪收錢逼迫整條整條 街道店鋪關門;人我們看到很多數據,地方稅收在下降而稅外收費卻在狂增。這一切看上去只是表像,實在是內部已經腐爛。

無論我們的經濟數據多麼好看,實際上無論是誰都會知道經濟危機說來就來。中國經濟學界的泰鬥, 國務院發展研究中心研究員、全國政協常委兼經濟委員會副主任、國務院信息化專家咨詢委員會副主任、國務院發展研究中心學術委員會副主任吳敬璉曾說,中國經 濟不能靠大量印鈔票了:1、靠投資來支撐經濟增長的話,再高也沒有意義;2、不用老盯著三駕馬車,三駕馬車是一個短期政策調整;3、現在情況就是惡性循 環,你用投資拉動,最終需求還是在下降;4、人民幣是國民承擔,所以要很謹慎;5、流通貨幣量過多,是房價高的根本原因。

連吳敬璉這樣的老人都明白的事,也就不難明白為什麼還有人在裝糊塗。這是目前中國最大的難題,以後會是個大問題。福利增加容易削減難,古今中外如是。如宋代幾個皇帝就頭疼冗官問題,範仲淹搞慶歷新政,主要內容也是針對公務員泛濫現像,最後烏紗丟了也解決不了。

宋朝從初期幾千公務員到一兩萬好像南宋到極致三四萬。那時人口約幾千萬吧,公務員兩三千比一的比例就泛濫了,現在多少了。歷史的看,在行政層級只有三級 (中央縣)的漢代,中國人口和公務員的比例大約是8000:1,唐代為3000:1,清代1000:1,今天變成了35:1,即35人養一個公務 員。在中國的西部,甚至是20人養一個公務員的局面,農民稅費負擔過重的問題因此尤其突出。然而現在,中國26個人養一個公務員還不夠,又要加薪。怕引起 民憤,加薪來了個捆綁,企業職工與公務員一起漲薪。理由當然很多,專家們在分析,我們的公務員的收入與國內各行業以及海外公務員的收入相比,相對較 低。

與美國的公務員去比,當然偏低;不說中國現在包括職業經理人、白領、藍領,與歐美相比,甚至與香港相比,哪個行業又能高了。但目前的現狀已是:26個人養 一個公務員。再看看中國歷史上民養官的比例:據1987年中國財政經濟出版社出版的《中國第三次人口普查資料分析》公布的中國歷代官民的比例:西 漢,79451;東漢,74641;唐朝,29271;元朝,26131;明朝,22991;清朝,9111;現代:6711998年財 政部部長助理劉長琨透露:漢朝八千人養一個官員,唐朝三千人養一個官員,清朝一千人養一個官員,現在四十個人養一個公務員。僅僅過了十一年,官民比例竟從 “671”升到了“401”。不怪農民說:幾十個大蓋帽管著一頂破草帽。現在是261了。

在這次兩會上又公布的一個數據,我國行政管理費用25年增長87倍! 早幾年,還常常聽說,政府機關要精簡機構,這幾年不但沒聽說,每年的公務員招考,如火如荼。在世人心目中,最好的職業已非公務員莫屬了。還有哪些靠財政全 額劃撥的事業單位名義上不是公務員,也還是要納稅人養著。老是跟海外的收入相比,就是不比一比人家的效率;人家的行政機構才多少人?!?如果現在龐大的機 構精簡一半,給剩下的人漲一倍工資,都還能省下大筆的行政經費。因為不創造價值的,每多一個,就是增加了好幾十萬的成本。據《暸望》周刊報道,中國 內地公務員與國外以及港澳台地區公務員的收入差距較大。就是不將國民的人均收入與國外以及港澳地區的人均收入相比!

中國的很多縣級公務員平時基本無事可干。比如安徽一個縣,總共人口只有30萬,縣城人口將近16萬,很多鄉鎮基本沒有事,但公務人員包括教師醫生和離退休 人員等多達3萬人,這只是本級財政要養活的人,基本上呈現三分天下的格局,三分之一是離退休人員,三分之一是普通公務員,三分之一是有帽子的。除本級財政 要養活的,還有一些編外人員,可能多達4000多人,全部是各級官員的七姑八姨,真正干事的沒有多少人。很多機構平時根本不需要上班,點個卯就去打麻將。 不是什麼人浮於事,而是冗員太多。這些年縣城的主干道每隔三年就重新拆除擴建,一次比一次規模更大,最早只花3000萬,後來是一個億,現在又在拆除新建 要花2個億。老百姓的錢就這麼不斷被糟蹋。目前,縣裡欠債36億,因為已經沒有任何抵押物品,所有山林水面和未來的土地儲備已經全部抵押給銀行,就連各級 辦公樓房也已經抵押給銀行,以後除非上級政府撥款下來才能搞什麼基建,否則財政岌岌可危。除了投資,已經沒有其他任何經濟活動能夠帶來增長。將來錢從何 來,根本就不知道。最後中央政府如果沒有好的辦法,可能采取由政府債務向全民的轉嫁,在往哪個方向轉,很難設想。如果轉嫁不了,一切就結束了。……中國大 陸在201147萬億的GDP中,有57%是靠投資拉動的,也就是說26.8萬億的GDP是靠投資拉動的,這種GDP最後帶來的必然是負債的不斷放大。 這只是從數據上了解,真實的情況是,目前中國無論出口和內需都遭遇寒流,不可能有增長,同樣投資也在下滑。政府為了GDP數據好看,不惜加大負債,最後一 定會遭到國際資本的猛烈攻擊。

中國要不要投資,答案是肯定的。GDP離不開投資,但一個健康的經濟運行體,投資比重不能超過30%;超過30%就表明該經濟體過熱,應該剎車。何況中國 的投資占GDP的比重已經連續3年超過52%以上,這就說明,終局將出現。因為這個經濟體將出現金融危機。這是人民幣逃不脫的厄運。

目前,港口碼頭已經過剩,高速公路也已經差不多,還有空間已經不大,不足以支撐投資增長;機場在三四線城市還有空間,也已經不大,像這種速度,2015 機場基本建完;高速鐵路,嚴格來說,中國地殼已經負載過大,不適宜再建大量高鐵,如果當政者不願意考慮國家和民族前途而一味只追求經濟增長,就將給中國的 未來和兒孫造成災難。

現在地方政府,今天要仿古,明天要造城;自己拿錢去建,他有嗎?讓中央政府拿錢,這就不僅僅只是窟窿,而是無底洞,永遠填不滿。關鍵問題是,前期爛尾的項 目、缺少資金的項目和低效過剩的項目根本就沒有梳理,問題的嚴重程度本身就是一場災難,在大手大腳揮霍財富,空耗國力,浪費民財,實際上是一種犯罪。但這 種末日心態已經顯露,都想在換屆前再大撈一筆,批准一些新的項目。現在的經濟增長越多,對下一屆政府帶來的負面影響就越大,負債就更高。

大限將至。清算來臨。這句話是深圳著名網評家牛刀在20125月份的一篇微博發表的,短短的8個字,一天之內就有了1000多條轉發,700多篇評論。別的可以維穩,經濟大衰退絕對是非人力所能為之,誰也沒有那個本事。這是經濟的大趨勢,是不可阻擋的。

Tuesday, October 16, 2012

My view on Gangham Style and K-Pop

PSY's Gangnam Style has broken many records, not only those on Youtube, but also in terms of chart/sales success for an Asian song. First of all, do I enjoy the song myself? Yes, I do. I particularly like how PSY sang that song on stage, as well as all the parodies and flesh mob clips related to that song on Youtube. However, for being a music fan myself, I can't help but take a moment to sit back and take a critic look of this phenomenon, and further share my view of that from a broader scope for a long time span.

These are my thoughts:

One hit wonder destiny- I think Gangnam Style is gonna be another one hit wonder from PSY in the Western music scene. Yes, he signed a label in the U.S., and he does have music talent. But, that's wouldn't change my view. Cuz, Gangnam Style reminds me of few other songs, the most obvious one is Macarena which was sung by unattractive singers (2 older Spanish guys), came with a set of dance (actually not as difficult or funny as PSY's), and it was a big hit in the U.S. to a point that even Al Gore danced along the song. However, does anyone remember the second hit from the singer of that song? No! because there was another one.

PSY's future - he will certainly be label as a spokeperson of K-pop for this generation and will be viewed as a 'living national treasure' in South Korea. Business wise, he will make a lot of money, that's no doubt about it. In the West, he will try his best to replicate his success in coming album, particularly the one that he signed for an U.S. label. He will have moderate success in sales (a quarter million or less in the U.S.) from an Asian artist perspective, but that's about it. No more number one song. The reason is because of many factors.1) Novelity - his success because he is considered to be coming out of nowhere, a completely new singer to the West that dance funny and sing in a strange language. When he starts to sing in English, that's not what his current Western fans wanna hear. 2) Genre - Gangnam Style is a K-pop with heavy programming and loops. PSY himself actually can and does sing in other genre, soften ballad or hip-hop. That's gonna be a tough sell to the Western audiences. They like what they hear, and if change the formula, they wouldn't buy it. If PSY stick to his current formula, he will still be viewed by the Western audiences as doing the same thing for being uncreative. It is no win situation for him.

K-pop in the West - It is no doubt that K-pop has captured a sizable trunk of fan base in the East Asia. However, with PSY and I'm sure few more fellow artists from South Korea who will certainly try to follow PSY's footstep, K-pop will become a bit more well-known in the West. However, I only think that it will only at best become a niche that few world audiences will really take into their heart to follow K-pop in the future. It is because K-pop itself is not really an unique genre. Music wise, it is a bend of dance pop, hip-hop, R&B, electronica, plus bunch of young singers/dancers with 'hot' but 'copycat' style appearance. If they don't have anything that 'exceed' what their Western counterparts have already done, I don't see how would Western fans will choose them over their native artists. For more, Western fans do look at things more than skin-deep. They like their idols to be individuals with unique views, talents, beliefs, or style. They don't mind them to do outrageous things, just to be different. When I see the whole bunch of K-pop artists, many of them do dance and sing well, but that's not enough. What are their background stories? life experience? how they were brought up? what odds that they have encountered and overcome? Have they done wrong and turned right? What are their inspirations? What are their contribution to the music itself? Western fans do care about these things. I'm sorry that K-pop artists wouldn't offer such, at least that's not what I've seen so far. Also, the language is an issue as well, if K-pop artists sing in English, they wouldn't beat their Western counterparts. Even if they are as good, that's still not enough. If they stay singing in Korean, they will have no chance for a long term career in the West. Korean is not Spanish or French, the speaking population of it is just too small. Just because someone buy Samsung or Hyundai, doesn't make him/her a fan of Korean culture.

Wild factor - what I mentioned above is far from certain. One wild factor is the power of MV. The fans these days are not MTV generation. They watch youTube. PSY succeeds because of youTube. It is still possible that his followers will do the same thing by using music video rather than just songs alone to capture fans. To make great MV, it takes money and creativity. These are things that Korean producers shouldn't be short of, at least for the short run. With the visual appeal of the K-pop artists, that would help a lot in that regard. So, there is still possibility that new generation of music fans will take the whole visual package as a whole to choose who they follow. With the growth of broadband, 4G, etc. Technology wise, it would help those K-pop artists in spreading their products to fans over the world.

Well, just some thoughts that I wanna share, feel free to comment if any.



Friday, October 12, 2012

Friendships among countries on Facebook

I came across this link today and it is quite interesting. Wanna share with whoever interest to find out which countries are top 5 closer friends of whom. Just click the circles.