Yes, Android's activation figure have already outpaced iOS given the fact that it is a many-against-one situation in the smartphone market. However, the current criticism on Android remains, i.e. (i) the fragmentation in Android versions due to multiple handset manufacturers and (ii) the malware problem of Android apps. I think these 2 are the biggest problem for Android. I think what Google can do something about them. However, I think Google should not do that in a big bang but rather doing that discretionary in next 2 years or so. The reason is that, in order for Google to fix those 2 problems, it has to go somewhat the Apple way, to have a tight grip of its ecosystem. I don't think Google will go all the way like what Apple does, i.e. to do everything in house. But the problems are really the consequences of given freedom to let the market to choose which have resulted with the good (explosive growth in adoption) and the bad (those 2 problems). Thus, if Google really want to fix the problems, it has to somehow take back some of the freedom that they gave out.
So, why 2 years? That has nothing to do with Apple, cuz, Apple is not gonna change its way until it is not working. The 2 years is my guess for Micorsoft to demise in the smartphone market. Window 8 has all the potentials, but I still think that MS is just too late in the smartphone game, it will go just like how Zume went before. I predict that MS will still stay in the mobile OS game, but more for the tablet market, not in the smartphone one. Thus, Google should wait till the MS smartphone is almost dead, then it can make a bigger push to control the release of Android codes. In that way, handset manufacturer's freedom to manipulate and customized Android for their sake will be limited, but they can't complain because the alternative of jumping in the MS camp will no longer be available. So, they will have to either live in the mercy of Google or exit the smartphone market altogether. Google can impose more restrictive demand on the handset requirements for using Android, either through licensing or else. In that way, I guess the fragmentation problem will gradually go away in 2-3 versions of Android.
In terms of malware, it is really the problem of Google's control of app marketplace. Yes, everybody can download Android apps anywhere. Google can't control other distribution channels. But, what Google can do is to promote its own distribution channel and market the hell of it using its big wallet. Also, put control and review the apps in its own distribution channel, so as to ensure their quality and make them bug-free. That's more-or-less the Apple way, the difference is that it will still let other legal distribution channels exists in the market, Google will beat them in the market and ultimately become the winner of it. I can't think of the details, but I can guess that Google can put a '*' sign on the icons of those apps that approved by Google in its markeplace, so users can distinguished that from the rest in terms of security and quality. In that way, as users will have their preferences in safety and quality, app developers will follow, they would rather be submitted to Google's control, than going on their own. Namely, put the app in Google's distribution channel than putting that in their own.
I guess the above development trend is possible, time will ultimately tell. Anyway, for being an iOS user myself. If what I guess come true, iOS will have a tough fight with Android. So, what I guess Apple has to to do is to lock in as many iOS users as quickly as possible, so it makes it even harder and costly to switch ecosystem down the road. It is what Apple is doing it now, but I think they need to continue with bigger effort, particularly in the first 2 years of their upcoming push of the 'iTV' market.
By the way, the reason I've the above thoughts are coming from reading the following article: